Despite population shrinkage, housing needs remain

The ladder for sustainable urbanization is still fodder for jurists and thus also for the Administrative Law Division of the Council of State. Opponents of building plans often invoke this instrument, which aims to promote economical use of space. After all, no one should want building for vacancy. Yet this does not mean that a building plan that provides for housing in a shrinkage region can never go ahead. Not even if there are already enough plans to meet the shrinking housing need. How does the Division arrive at this judgment?

Zoning plan Carolusdreef 100

On March 28, 2018, the Division ruled on the zoning plan Carolusdreef 100 adopted by the Valkenswaard council, which provides for the construction of 14 ground-level houses and 23 apartments on a former school site. As usual with this type of classic infill location, the objections mainly concern building height, privacy and the spatial appearance. But appellants also argue that insufficient justification has been given for the building plan meeting an actual need in accordance with the ladder for sustainable urbanization. No account has been taken of population decline, which leads to a lower need for housing. And if there are fewer residents, one should not build new housing units, appellants said.

Application of the ladder

The Division addresses this appeal with the usual considerations regarding the ladder for sustainable urbanization. The ladder is not a blueprint and the steps do not lead to a predetermined result (therefore, the application of the ladder is not mathematics). The competent authority knows the regional and local circumstances and makes a spatial assessment. Whether the need is current is determined, among other things, by whether urban development is already planned or taking place elsewhere in the region that can meet that need, according to the Division.

To make that assessment, the data must first be laid out. In this case, this was done with a report by Stec. It shows that the so-called hard planning capacity amounts to 745 houses. The soft plan capacity amounts to 527 houses and this plan is part of that soft plan capacity. After this supply side has been visualized, the demand side will be visualized. This takes into account that the population will decrease in the period 2014-2030. But at the same time, the forecast figures show that an increase in the number of households is predicted due to family thinning. And that family dilution is much stronger than population shrinkage, it turns out. Population shrinkage, therefore, does not immediately lead to the disappearance of housing demand and thus housing need, quite the contrary. It has been calculated that the observed increase in the number of households in the forecast creates a need for as many as 875 additional homes within the 10-year planning period.

From quantitative to qualitative alignment

With this data, the arithmetic shows that in addition to the hard plan capacity of 745 housing units, there is still a need for 130 housing units that can be realized from the soft plan capacity. This quantitative need is then converted into a qualitative housing need in political decision-making. The council has decided to prioritize third-party plans for inner-city urban developments that fit the qualitative need for social housing, which is also provided for in this plan. Therefore, the final conclusion is that implementing the housing plan on Carolusdreef meets an actual regional need and that unacceptable structural vacancy elsewhere need not be feared.

Conclusion

Population decline does not preclude the need for housing. In the quantitative sense, because developments in family composition can lead to increased housing needs. In a qualitative sense, because the housing stock does not necessarily match the need. A mix of these arguments makes a ladder justification strong. Perhaps updating housing need estimates with trends in household composition will also silence ladder discussions in shrink regions.

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